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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

2-2-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Nationwide Arena
View Odds Details →

COLUMBUS

BLUE JACKETSCBJ

2-1-0  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Sergei Murashov
GOALTENDER

Sergei Murashov

#1 | Goaltender
@
Cam Talbot
GOALTENDER

Cam Talbot

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Sergei Murashov None-None 1.85 0.956 --
Cam Talbot None-None 1.85 0.909 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.85 GAA 1.85
0.956 Ldr Save % 0.909
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
51%
📊
BLUE JACKETS
49%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (PIT)
PENGUINS 51% Book Odds: -102
BLUE JACKETS 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 50.50% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 6.5 66%
Under 6.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (+1.5) 0 Blue JacketsCBJ (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Penguins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

77.3%

Blue Jackets Cover

22.7%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

19.1%

PIT By 2-3 goals

34.1%

CBJ By 1 goal

9.2%

CBJ By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
3
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
4
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jackets Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.5
A
Sim o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 PIT @ CBJ 2 - 3
Jan 17, 2026 CBJ @ PIT 4 - 3
Jan 4, 2026 PIT @ CBJ 5 - 4
Nov 28, 2025 PIT @ CBJ 4 - 3
Oct 25, 2025 CBJ @ PIT 5 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +35.0% more
Pittsburgh: 32.8 vs Columbus: 21.3
Takeaways (L5) +54.7% more
Columbus: 6.3 vs Pittsburgh: 4.1
Hits (L5) +29.0% more
Columbus: 18.5 vs Pittsburgh: 14.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +22.4% more
Columbus: 17.7 vs Pittsburgh: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.5 2
CBJ Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.7 / 14.4 14.0 / 19.0
Faceoff % 55.5 / 43.8 66.7 / 33.3
Hits 18.5 / 14.3 21.0 / 9.0
Power Play % 4446.0 / 2222.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 21.3 / 32.8 45.0 / 22.0
Takeaways 6.3 / 4.1 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -102 / -118 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
77%TICKETS23%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBJ
PIT
CBJ
PIT
ML
30% 3-7
75% 9-3
80% 8-2
50% 6-6
ATS
30% 3-7
58% 7-5
70% 7-3
67% 8-4
TTL
50% 5-5
33% 4-8
40% 4-6
42% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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