Home / NHL Projections NHL / Rangers @ Capitals NYR @ WSH

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

4-2-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

3-1-0  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Igor Shesterkin None-None 2.12 0.929 --
Logan Thompson None-None 1.00 0.955 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.12 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.929 Save % Ldr 0.955
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
35%
📊
CAPITALS
65%
▲ Edge: +6.60% (WSH)
RANGERS 46% Book Odds: +120
CAPITALS 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 49%
Under 5.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RangersNYR (+1.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

77.3%

Capitals Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYR +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)

NYR By 1 goal

9.2%

NYR By 2-3 goals

6.1%

WSH By 1 goal

19.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Capitals Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Rangers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 NYR @ WSH 1 - 3
Apr 5, 2026 WSH @ NYR 1 - 8
Dec 31, 2025 NYR @ WSH 3 - 6
Dec 23, 2025 NYR @ WSH 7 - 3
Oct 12, 2025 WSH @ NYR 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +25.7% more
Washington: 20.6 vs New York: 16.4
Power Play % (L5) +10.8%
Washington: 30.6% vs New York: 19.8%
Shots on Goal (L5) +10.6% more
Washington: 25.7 vs New York: 23.2
Hits (L5) +20.7% more
New York: 25.8 vs Washington: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYR Score 2.0 1
WSH Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 20.6 / 16.4 12.0 / 9.0
Faceoff % 51.5 / 51.3 46.3 / 53.7
Hits 20.5 / 25.8 22.0 / 35.0
Power Play % 30.6 / 19.8 0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 25.7 / 23.2 27.0 / 22.0
Takeaways 4.3 / 4.6 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +120 / -142
30%TICKETS70%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
79%TICKETS21%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
93%TICKETS7%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYR
WSH
NYR
ML
82% 9-2
64% 9-5
45% 5-6
50% 7-7
ATS
64% 7-4
57% 8-6
64% 7-4
50% 7-7
TTL
44% 4-5-2
57% 8-6
22% 2-7-2
57% 8-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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