TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
93-68 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
| Max Fried | 1-0 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 6.0 | 6 |
0-0
W-L
1-0
0.00 Ldr
ERA
1.50
0.00 Ldr
WHIP
0.67
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
27%
YANKEES
73%
▲ Edge: +9% (NYY)
RAYS
40%
Book Odds: +148
YANKEES
64%
Book Odds: -180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TB By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.728
OPS
▲
1.041
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+137.0% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+98.2% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Home Runs (L5)
+53.0% more
New York: 1.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.2%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.5
4
NYY Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
4.9 / 7.9
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 6.4
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.8 / 12.5
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.5
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +133 / -161
→
+148 / -180
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
97-66
53%
86-76
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-10
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