MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
103-59 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Pivetta
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
| Nick Pivetta | 0-0 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 3.1 | 4 |
0-0
W-L
0-0
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.70
0.00 Ldr
WHIP
1.50
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
38%
PADRES
62%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (SD)
BREWERS
46%
Book Odds: +119
PADRES
59%
Book Odds: -144
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
MIL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
San Diego
5.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.341
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.743
OPS
▲
.925
154
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+18.3% more
San Diego: 8.7
vs
Milwaukee: 7.3
OPS (Season)
+18.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.3%
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Milwaukee: 5.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.0%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.5
3
SD Score
5.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.3
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.9
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 10.8
9.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.7
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -121
→
+119 / -144
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIL
SD
MIL
ML
51%
85-83
62%
101-61
51%
85-82
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
94-68
55%
92-75
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
82-80-6
40%
62-92-8
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-77-8
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