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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

93-68  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Oct 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cam Schlittler
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Schlittler

#31 | Starting Pitcher
@
Freddy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Freddy Peralta

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cam Schlittler 1-0 0.00 0.47 6.1 10
Freddy Peralta 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
1-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.47 WHIP Ldr 0.00
6.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
10 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
52%
📊
RAYS
48%
YANKEES 56% Book Odds: -126
RAYS 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 55.80% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 74%
Under 6.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 RaysTB (+1.5)
New York Yankees (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 NYY @ TB 2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026 NYY @ TB 0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 TB @ NYY 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Tampa Bay TB
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041 ▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +49.6% more
New York: 9.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season) +31.3%
New York: 1.0% vs Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Slugging Pct (Season) +19.2%
New York: 59.4% vs Tampa Bay: 40.2%
On-Base Pct (Season) +12.1%
New York: 44.7% vs Tampa Bay: 32.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.5 2
TB Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 4.0
Hits 7.9 / 5.4 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.8 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 9.2 10.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +108 → -126 / +104 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
75%TICKETS25%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58% 95-68
47% 76-85
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 95-66
55% 90-73
53% 86-76
TTL
47% 73-81-9
53% 81-73-7
51% 78-75-10
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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