SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
103-59 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robbie Ray
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Misiorowski
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
0-0
W-L
0-0
0.00
ERA
0.00
0.00
WHIP
0.00
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
50%
BREWERS
50%
▲ Edge: +13.60% (SD)
PADRES
37%
Book Odds: +171
BREWERS
68%
Book Odds: -209
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
MIL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Milwaukee
3.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.14
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.341
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.925
▲
OPS
.743
4
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.1% more
San Diego: 1.7
vs
Milwaukee: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+25.3% more
San Diego: 17.8
vs
Milwaukee: 13.3
OPS (Season)
+18.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.3%
Hits (L5)
+17.8% more
San Diego: 11.3
vs
Milwaukee: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.5
2
MIL Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 11.3
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 8.0
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 17.8
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.3
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +178 / -218
→
+171 / -209
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
SD
MIL
SD
ML
62%
101-61
51%
85-83
52%
84-78
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
91-77
48%
78-84
55%
92-75
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-77-8
54%
86-74-6
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