TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
2-2-1 | Road
3
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
4-1-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sergei Bobrovsky
#72 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | None-None | 2.77 | 0.930 | -- |
| Adin Hill | None-None | 2.78 | 0.875 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.77 Ldr
GAA
2.78
0.930 Ldr
Save %
0.875
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
34%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
66%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (VGK)
MAPLE LEAFS
41%
Book Odds: +142
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
63%
Book Odds: -170
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5
42%
Under 6.5
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
VEGAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
TOR By 1 goal
8.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
5.5%
VGK By 1 goal
18.9%
VGK By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
Vegas
3.8
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Golden Knights
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Golden Knights
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
TOR @ VGK
3 - 4
Jan 23, 2026
VGK @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 15, 2026
TOR @ VGK
5 - 6
Mar 5, 2025
TOR @ VGK
2 - 5
Nov 20, 2024
VGK @ TOR
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+12.2%
Vegas: 32.6%
vs
Toronto: 20.4%
Takeaways (L5)
+32.5% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Vegas: 2.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+24.1% more
Toronto: 13.2
vs
Vegas: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.2
3
VGK Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.0 / 13.2
15.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
52.6 / 51.6
40.3 / 59.7
Hits
22.0 / 20.8
27.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
3258.0 / 2036.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.0 / 30.9
43.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
2.7 / 4.0
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162
→
+142 / -170
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
TOR
VGK
TOR
ML
71%
10-4
53%
8-7
50%
7-7
40%
6-9
ATS
50%
7-7
40%
6-9
64%
9-5
73%
11-4
TTL
29%
4-10
47%
7-8
43%
6-8
33%
5-10
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