Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Rams ARI @ LAR

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

2-4  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

2-4  |  Home

16
Key Game
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Blake Gillikin None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
17%
📊
RAMS
83%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (ARI)
CARDINALS 17% Book Odds: +500
RAMS 88% Book Odds: -699
Book Implied: 16.70% / 87.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.6
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.9 (Under)
Over 51.5 30%
Under 51.5 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Arizona)
CardinalsARI (+12.5) 0 RamsLAR (-12.5)
Arizona Cardinals (+12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

78.4%

Rams Cover

21.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARI +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-6 points

10.0%

ARI By 7-13 points

6.6%

LAR By 1-6 points

14.7%

LAR By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 19.50
27.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 32
Simulated Score
17
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 19.50
31
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 32
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rams Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Rams Loss
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
C
Sim Rams (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.6
A
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 ARI @ LAR 18 - 16
Jan 4, 2026 ARI @ LAR 20 - 37
Dec 7, 2025 LAR @ ARI 45 - 17
Dec 28, 2024 ARI @ LAR 9 - 13
Sep 15, 2024 LAR @ ARI 10 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.2% more
Los Angeles: 327.6 vs Arizona: 227.1
Total Yards (L5) +38.9% more
Los Angeles: 437.7 vs Arizona: 315.1
First Downs (L5) +32.8% more
Los Angeles: 27.2 vs Arizona: 20.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +29.5% more
Los Angeles: 5.9 vs Arizona: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 16.8 18
LAR Score 27.8 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.2 / 20.4 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 327.6 / 227.1 194.0 / 218.0
Rushing Yards 110.1 / 88.0 92.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 437.7 / 315.1 286.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 4.6 5.1 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +500 / -699 → +500 / -699
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +13.5 / -13.5 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 51.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: -3.5
LAR Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: -3.5
LAR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.4
LAR
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
ARI
LAR
ARI
ML
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
ATS
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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