Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Giants NO @ NYG

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

3-2-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
@
Jordan Stout
KEY GAME

Jordan Stout

#15 | Punter
Player
Ryan Wright None-None
Jordan Stout None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
42%
📊
GIANTS
58%
▲ Edge: +6.80% (NYG)
SAINTS 52% Book Odds: -107
GIANTS 51% Book Odds: -104
Book Implied: 51.70% / 51%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 46.0 47%
Under 46.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New York)
SaintsNO (-1) 0 GiantsNYG (+1)
New York Giants (+1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

36.0%

Giants Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYG -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

NO By 1-6 points

14.2%

NO By 7-13 points

11.3%

NYG By 1-6 points

16.9%

NYG By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 23.50
25
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
21
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 23.50
24
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Giants Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Giants (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u46.0 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Sim u46.0 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 NO @ NYG 34 - 27
Oct 5, 2025 NYG @ NO 14 - 26
Dec 8, 2024 NO @ NYG 14 - 11
Dec 17, 2023 NYG @ NO 6 - 24
Oct 3, 2021 NYG @ NO 27 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.5% more
New York: 109.3 vs New Orleans: 79.5
Total Yards (L5) +21.4% more
New York: 335.3 vs New Orleans: 276.1
First Downs (L5) +17.0% more
New York: 21.6 vs New Orleans: 18.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
New York: 226.0 vs New Orleans: 196.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 20.0 34
NYG Score 25.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 18.5 23.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 226.0 / 196.6 377.0 / 144.0
Rushing Yards 109.3 / 79.5 84.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 335.3 / 276.1 461.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.1 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 4.4 6.4 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → -107 / -104 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → -1 / +1 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 46 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
NYG Advantage
4-2-1 (66.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
NYG Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.5
NYG
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
NO
NYG
NO
ML
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
67% 4-2-1
29% 2-5
ATS
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
TTL
57% 4-3
0% 0-7
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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