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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

2-2-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Oct 7 • 7:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

2-1-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Arturs Silovs None-None 5.35 0.815 --
Logan Thompson None-None 3.00 0.900 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.35 GAA Ldr 3.00
0.815 Save % Ldr 0.900
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
30%
📊
CAPITALS
70%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (WSH)
PENGUINS 42% Book Odds: +136
CAPITALS 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 42.40% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 42%
Under 6.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
PenguinsPIT (+1.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (-1.5)
Washington Capitals (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

21.2%

Capitals Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PIT By 1 goal

8.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

5.5%

WSH By 1 goal

18.9%

WSH By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Capitals Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Capitals Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Capitals (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 PIT @ WSH 3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026 PIT @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ PIT 6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025 WSH @ PIT 3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025 WSH @ PIT 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +84.1% more
Washington: 23.3 vs Pittsburgh: 12.7
Hits (L5) +9.7% more
Washington: 19.7 vs Pittsburgh: 18.0
Faceoff % (L5) +3.1%
Washington: 48.0% vs Pittsburgh: 44.9%
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.9% more
Pittsburgh: 34.2 vs Washington: 25.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.2 3
WSH Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 23.3 / 12.7 15.0 / 18.0
Faceoff % 48.0 / 44.9 58.5 / 41.5
Hits 19.7 / 18.0 22.0 / 7.0
Power Play % 33.3 / 33.3 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.0 / 34.2 27.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 4.6 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -170 → +136 / -162 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
56%TICKETS44%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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