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OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

2-1-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Oct 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

1-2-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Samuel Ersson
GOALTENDER

Samuel Ersson

#30 | Goaltender
@
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Samuel Ersson None-None 4.14 0.886 --
John Gibson None-None 3.01 0.880 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.14 GAA Ldr 3.01
0.886 Ldr Save % 0.880
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
53%
📊
RED WINGS
47%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (OTT)
SENATORS 50% Book Odds: +102
RED WINGS 55% Book Odds: -122
Book Implied: 49.50% / 55%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 49%
Under 5.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
OTTAWA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Ottawa)
SenatorsOTT (+1.5) 0 Red WingsDET (-1.5)
Ottawa Senators (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

77.3%

Red Wings Cover

22.7%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

OTT By 1 goal

19.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

34.1%

DET By 1 goal

9.2%

DET By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2
2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Senators Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wings Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Senators (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim Red Wings (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 6, 2026 OTT @ DET 3 - 5
Mar 24, 2026 OTT @ DET 3 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 DET @ OTT 2 - 1
Jan 18, 2026 OTT @ DET 3 - 4
Jan 5, 2026 DET @ OTT 5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +33.9% more
Ottawa: 34.2 vs Detroit: 22.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +30.0% more
Ottawa: 16.7 vs Detroit: 11.7
Takeaways (L5) +10.6% more
Ottawa: 3.6 vs Detroit: 3.2
Power Play % (L5) +6.8%
Detroit: 6.8% vs Ottawa: 0.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 3.5 3
DET Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.7 / 16.7 16.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 57.2 / 54.1 47.5 / 52.5
Hits 22.6 / 34.2 28.0 / 31.0
Power Play % 6.8 / 0.0 40.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal 26.4 / 27.3 36.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 3.2 / 3.6 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115 → +102 / -122 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
82%TICKETS18%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
OTT
DET
OTT
ML
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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