Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ N Dakota St NEV @ NDSU

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

2-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Fargodome
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

N DAKOTA STNDSU

6-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ewan Baulch
KEY GAME

Ewan Baulch

#95 | Punter
@
Aaron Bickerton
KEY GAME

Aaron Bickerton

#39 | Punter
Player
Ewan Baulch None-None
Aaron Bickerton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
18%
📊
N DAKOTA ST
82%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (NEV)
NEVADA 17% Book Odds: +500
N DAKOTA ST 88% Book Odds: -699
Book Implied: 16.70% / 87.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 75%
Under 42.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.6
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
-14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (North Dakota State)
NevadaNEV (+14.5) 0 N Dakota StNDSU (-14.5)
North Dakota State Bison (-14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

13.3%

N Dakota St Cover

86.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NDSU -15.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

NEV By 1-6 points

6.8%

NEV By 7-13 points

3.8%

NDSU By 1-6 points

11.7%

NDSU By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
NEVADA
Book Implied: 14
34.8
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
17
NEVADA
Book Implied: 14
30
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI N Dakota St Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim N Dakota St Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI N Dakota St (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.6
D
Sim Nevada (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 NEV @ NDSU 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
North Dakota State: 0.4 vs Nevada: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Nevada: 206.9 vs North Dakota State: 169.8
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
Nevada: 1.5 vs North Dakota State: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 19.2 17
NDSU Score 34.8 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 19.7 19.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 169.8 / 206.9 192.0 / 96.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 354.7 / 363.3 345.0 / 286.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +465 / -695 → +500 / -699
1%TICKETS99%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +14.5 / -14.5
34%TICKETS66%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46 → 42.5 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +5.2
NDSU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +5.2
NDSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.5
NDSU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
NEV
NDSU
NEV
ML
100% 5-0
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
ATS
60% 3-2
29% 2-5
88% 7-1
43% 3-4
TTL
40% 2-3
29% 2-5
12% 1-7
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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