TROY
TROYTROY
3-3 | Road
6
LOUISIANA
LOUISIANAUL
5-2 | Home
33
Key Game
KEY GAME
Evan Crenshaw
#28 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Mason Golding
#49 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Evan Crenshaw | None-None |
| Mason Golding | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
47%
LOUISIANA
53%
▲ Edge: +2% (TROY)
TROY
45%
Book Odds: +124
LOUISIANA
60%
Book Odds: -148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
Over 49.5
50%
Under 49.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TROY
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
TROY By 1-6 points
15.9%
TROY By 7-13 points
14.2%
UL By 1-6 points
16.8%
UL By 7-13 points
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
24
TROY
Book Implied: 23.20
Louisiana
25.5
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 26.20
Simulated Score
Troy
18
TROY
Book Implied: 23.20
Louisiana
32
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 26.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Louisiana
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Louisiana
Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Troy (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: +1.5
D
Sim
Louisiana (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u49.5
Win
Proj Total: 49.5
D
Sim
o49.5
Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
TROY @ UL
6 - 33
Oct 25, 2025
UL @ TROY
23 - 35
Nov 23, 2024
TROY @ UL
30 - 51
Nov 18, 2023
UL @ TROY
24 - 31
Nov 5, 2022
TROY @ UL
23 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+60.0% more
Louisiana: 1.8
vs
Troy: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5)
+22.8% more
Troy: 239.3
vs
Louisiana: 184.7
Total Yards (L5)
+16.4% more
Troy: 455.9
vs
Louisiana: 381.0
First Downs (L5)
+9.6% more
Troy: 24.6
vs
Louisiana: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
24.0
6
UL Score
25.5
33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.2 / 24.6
23.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards
184.7 / 239.3
243.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.59 / 0.25
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards
381.0 / 455.9
351.0 / 267.0
Turnovers
1.8 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +153 / -178
→
+124 / -148
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5
→
+3 / -3
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5
→
49.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -4.5
UL
Advantage
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 8.9
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
3-5-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -4.5
UL
Advantage
5-2-1
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.9
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5%
Total +/-: -3.4
UL
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
TROY
UL
TROY
ML
88%
7-1
62%
5-3
75%
6-2
62%
5-3
ATS
57%
4-3-1
12%
1-7
71%
5-2-1
75%
6-2
TTL
38%
3-5
38%
3-5
50%
4-4
38%
3-5
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