Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Miami OH AKR @ M-OH

AKRON

AKRONAKR

1-6  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

4-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
Kellan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Kellan McLaughlin

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Kellan McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
24%
📊
MIAMI OH
76%
AKRON 25% Book Odds: +301
MIAMI OH 79% Book Odds: -370
Book Implied: 24.90% / 78.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.4
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 (Over)
Over 48.0 67%
Under 48.0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
-9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Miami (OH))
AkronAKR (+9.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (-9.5)
Miami (OH) RedHawks (-9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

19.6%

Miami OH Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around M-OH -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

AKR By 1-6 points

9.3%

AKR By 7-13 points

5.9%

M-OH By 1-6 points

14.2%

M-OH By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
AKRON
Book Implied: 19.20
33.2
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 28.80
Simulated Score
22
AKRON
Book Implied: 19.20
32
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 28.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami OH Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami OH Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami OH (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Miami OH (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.0 Push
Proj Total: 54.4
A
Sim o48.0 Push
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 AKR @ M-OH 14 - 34
Oct 11, 2025 M-OH @ AKR 20 - 7
Nov 8, 2023 AKR @ M-OH 0 - 19
Oct 29, 2022 M-OH @ AKR 27 - 9
Oct 16, 2021 AKR @ M-OH 21 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +69.6% more
Akron: 1.6 vs Miami (OH): 0.5
First Downs (L5) +9.3% more
Akron: 20.0 vs Miami (OH): 18.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Akron: 138.5 vs Miami (OH): 125.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 21.2 14
M-OH Score 33.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 20.0 16.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 125.8 / 138.5 324.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.22 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 323.4 / 348.5 389.0 / 315.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +304 / -404 → +301 / -370 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47 → 48 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -6.2
M-OH Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -6.2
M-OH Advantage
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +2.6
M-OH
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
AKR
M-OH
AKR
ML
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
ATS
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
TTL
71% 5-2-1
86% 6-1-1
71% 5-2-1
71% 5-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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