Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Michigan @ C Michigan WMU @ CMU

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

5-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 1:30 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

3-4  |  Home

14
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
53%
📊
C MICHIGAN
47%
▲ Edge: +19% (CMU)
W MICHIGAN 76% Book Odds: -309
C MICHIGAN 28% Book Odds: +257
Book Implied: 75.60% / 28%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.4
Projected
Book Total
44.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 (Over)
Over 44.0 60%
Under 44.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Central Michigan)
W MichiganWMU (-7.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (+7.5)
Central Michigan Chippewas (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

47.2%

C Michigan Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CMU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

WMU By 1-6 points

16.7%

WMU By 7-13 points

16.1%

CMU By 1-6 points

16.1%

CMU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24.2
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 25.80
23.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18.20
Simulated Score
21
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 25.80
24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI W Michigan Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim C Michigan Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim C Michigan (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.4
B
Sim o44.0 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 WMU @ CMU 21 - 14
Nov 1, 2025 CMU @ WMU 21 - 24
Nov 19, 2024 WMU @ CMU 14 - 16
Nov 7, 2023 CMU @ WMU 28 - 38
Nov 16, 2022 WMU @ CMU 12 - 10
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +25.0% more
Western Michigan: 20.5 vs Central Michigan: 15.4
Total Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Western Michigan: 365.3 vs Central Michigan: 310.4
Turnovers (L5) +114.0% more
Central Michigan: 1.5 vs Western Michigan: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 24.2 21
CMU Score 23.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.4 / 20.5 20.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 179.6 / 171.7 158.0 / 224.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 310.4 / 365.3 337.0 / 272.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -298 / +240 → -309 / +257 ↓
96%TICKETS4%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 44 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
CMU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
CMU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
CMU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
WMU
CMU
WMU
ML
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
TTL
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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