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TCU

TCUTCU

3-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

4-2  |  Home

6
Key Game
John Hoyet Chance
KEY GAME

John Hoyet Chance

#48 | Punter
@
Rhett Armstrong
KEY GAME

Rhett Armstrong

#98 | Place kicker
Player
John Hoyet Chance None-None
Rhett Armstrong None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
61%
📊
BAYLOR
39%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (TCU)
TCU 39% Book Odds: +158
BAYLOR 64% Book Odds: -180
Book Implied: 38.80% / 64.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.6
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.9 (Under)
Over 50.5 43%
Under 50.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TCU
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (TCU)
TCUTCU (+4) 0 BaylorBAY (-4)
TCU Horned Frogs (+4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

64.0%

Baylor Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TCU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

TCU By 1-6 points

16.9%

TCU By 7-13 points

18.5%

BAY By 1-6 points

14.2%

BAY By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
TCU
Book Implied: 23.20
20.8
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 27.20
Simulated Score
31
TCU
Book Implied: 23.20
36
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 27.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI TCU Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Baylor Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI TCU (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Baylor (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.6
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 67.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 TCU @ BAY 17 - 6
Oct 18, 2025 BAY @ TCU 36 - 42
Nov 2, 2024 TCU @ BAY 34 - 37
Nov 18, 2023 BAY @ TCU 17 - 42
Nov 19, 2022 TCU @ BAY 29 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.1% more
TCU: 1.8 vs Baylor: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +57.5% more
Baylor: 179.5 vs TCU: 114.0
First Downs (L5) +25.3% more
Baylor: 24.9 vs TCU: 19.9
Total Yards (L5) +18.1% more
Baylor: 463.4 vs TCU: 392.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 25.8 17
BAY Score 20.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 19.9 23.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 179.5 / 114.0 54.0 / 33.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 463.4 / 392.3 310.0 / 327.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +197 / -242 → +158 / -180 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 50.5 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: -1.1
BAY Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: -1.1
BAY Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -13.9
BAY
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
TCU
BAY
TCU
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
ATS
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
TTL
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
12% 1-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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