Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kentucky @ Oklahoma UK @ OU

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

6-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

3-3  |  Home

13
Key Game
Wilson Berry
KEY GAME

Wilson Berry

#93 | Punter
@
Tate Sandell
KEY GAME

Tate Sandell

#29 | Place kicker
Player
Wilson Berry None-None
Tate Sandell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
20%
📊
OKLAHOMA
80%
▲ Edge: +8.10% (OU)
KENTUCKY 31% Book Odds: +218
OKLAHOMA 72% Book Odds: -257
Book Implied: 31.40% / 72%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 73%
Under 43.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.4
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Oklahoma)
KentuckyUK (+7) 0 OklahomaOU (-7)
Oklahoma Sooners (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kentucky Cover

15.2%

Oklahoma Cover

84.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OU -14.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

UK By 1-6 points

7.6%

UK By 7-13 points

4.5%

OU By 1-6 points

12.6%

OU By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 18.20
34.2
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
30
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 18.20
27
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Kentucky Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Oklahoma (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.4
A
Sim Kentucky (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 UK @ OU 21 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +108.0% more
Oklahoma: 1.8 vs Kentucky: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.7% more
Kentucky: 173.6 vs Oklahoma: 83.8
Total Yards (L5) +29.1% more
Kentucky: 407.2 vs Oklahoma: 288.9
First Downs (L5) +27.4% more
Kentucky: 21.0 vs Oklahoma: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 19.8 21
OU Score 34.2 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 21.0 19.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 83.8 / 173.6 76.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 288.9 / 407.2 346.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.7 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +197 / -241 → +218 / -257 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +7 / -7 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 43.5
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +7.1
OU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +7.1
OU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +6.3
OU
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
UK
OU
UK
ML
86% 6-1
50% 4-4
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
ATS
57% 4-3
25% 2-6
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
TTL
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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