Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nebraska @ Oregon NEB @ ORE

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

5-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 11:00 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

4-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
@
Bailey Ettridge
KEY GAME

Bailey Ettridge

#39 | Punter
Player
Kyle Cunanan None-None
Bailey Ettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEBRASKA
19%
📊
OREGON
81%
▲ Edge: +11.20% (ORE)
NEBRASKA 35% Book Odds: +190
OREGON 70% Book Odds: -230
Book Implied: 34.50% / 69.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 67%
Under 51.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
OREGON
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Oregon)
NebraskaNEB (+6.5) 0 OregonORE (-6.5)
Oregon Ducks (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nebraska Cover

14.2%

Oregon Cover

85.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

NEB By 1-6 points

7.2%

NEB By 7-13 points

4.1%

ORE By 1-6 points

12.2%

ORE By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 22.50
37.5
OREGON
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
28
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 22.50
36
OREGON
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Oregon Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Sim Oregon (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 NEB @ ORE 14 - 17
Sep 9, 2017 NEB @ ORE 35 - 42
Sep 17, 2016 ORE @ NEB 32 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +203.0% more
Oregon: 2.7 vs Nebraska: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.9% more
Nebraska: 184.0 vs Oregon: 132.7
First Downs (L5) +16.7% more
Nebraska: 24.7 vs Oregon: 20.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Nebraska: 0.5 vs Oregon: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEB Score 22.5 14
ORE Score 37.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 24.7 15.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 132.7 / 184.0 129.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.18 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 432.1 / 422.4 242.0 / 242.0
Turnovers 2.7 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +215 / -267 → +190 / -230 ↓
16%TICKETS84%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +6.5 / -6.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEB Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +7.7
ORE
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: -9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEB Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +7.7
ORE
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: -9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NEB
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +0.5
ORE
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
NEB
ORE
NEB
ML
57% 4-3
100% 7-0
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
ATS
14% 1-6
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
TTL
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Idaho State Stuns Utah Tech with Two Late Pick-Sixes, 34-27
ctinsider 1 hour, 13 minutes ago
Florida State Fans Fly 'Fire Novell' Banner with Spelling Error …
sportingnews 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
Halloween Fright Night: Will More Top 25 Teams Fall in Week 9?
yourvalley_net 13 hours, 32 minutes ago
Freshman Phenom Jesse Legree Tops FBS Receiving Charts After Wee…
si 19 hours, 25 minutes ago
Ole Miss vs. Auburn: Beyond the Scoreboard, Rebels Seek Redempti…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago