Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Indiana OSU @ IU

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

6-1  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

6-1  |  Home

15
Key Game
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
@
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
Player
Joe McGuire None-None
Billy Gowers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
34%
📊
INDIANA
66%
▲ Edge: +20.60% (IU)
OHIO STATE 59% Book Odds: -142
INDIANA 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 60%
Under 49.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Indiana)
Ohio StateOSU (-2.5) 0 IndianaIU (+2.5)
Indiana Hoosiers (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

30.9%

Indiana Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

OSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

OSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

IU By 1-6 points

16.5%

IU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 26
31
INDIANA
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
30
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 26
33
INDIANA
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Indiana Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Indiana Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Indiana (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 OSU @ IU 19 - 15
Dec 6, 2025 IU @ OSU 13 - 10
Nov 23, 2024 IU @ OSU 15 - 38
Sep 2, 2023 OSU @ IU 23 - 3
Nov 12, 2022 IU @ OSU 14 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Indiana: 197.9 vs Ohio State: 172.1
Turnovers (L5) +92.6% more
Ohio State: 1.1 vs Indiana: 0.1
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Ohio State: 24.7 vs Indiana: 20.1
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Ohio State: 0.6 vs Indiana: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 24.0 19
IU Score 31.0 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 24.7 17.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 197.9 / 172.1 73.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 445.9 / 478.3 369.0 / 313.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -192 / +160 → -142 / +120 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4 / +4 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
63%TICKETS37%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 25.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
IU Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 25.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
IU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -0.2
IU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
OSU
IU
OSU
ML
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
86% 6-1
ATS
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
29% 2-5
TTL
38% 3-5
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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