Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida St @ Miami FSU @ MIA

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-4  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

6-0  |  Home

43
Key Game
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Daniel Hughes None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
18%
📊
MIAMI
82%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (FSU)
FLORIDA ST 10% Book Odds: +900
MIAMI 94% Book Odds: -1587
Book Implied: 10% / 94.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 54%
Under 56.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+15.6
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
+19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Florida State)
Florida StFSU (+19.5) 0 MiamiMIA (-19.5)
Florida State Seminoles (+19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

86.7%

Miami Cover

13.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU +15.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

FSU By 1-6 points

6.8%

FSU By 7-13 points

3.8%

MIA By 1-6 points

11.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
36.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 38
Simulated Score
27
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
37
MIAMI
Book Implied: 38
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +15.6
B
Sim Florida St (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 FSU @ MIA 35 - 43
Oct 4, 2025 MIA @ FSU 28 - 22
Oct 26, 2024 FSU @ MIA 14 - 36
Nov 11, 2023 MIA @ FSU 20 - 27
Nov 5, 2022 FSU @ MIA 45 - 3
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +28.4% more
Miami: 27.6 vs Florida State: 21.5
Total Yards (L5) +23.7% more
Miami: 503.6 vs Florida State: 407.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.1% more
Miami: 200.7 vs Florida State: 185.6
Turnovers (L5) +72.9% more
Florida State: 1.3 vs Miami: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 21.2 35
MIA Score 36.8 43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.6 / 21.5 26.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 200.7 / 185.6 257.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 503.6 / 407.2 583.0 / 443.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +830 / -1591 → +900 / -1587
2%TICKETS98%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +21 / -21 → +19.5 / -19.5 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56.5
65%TICKETS35%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
MIA Advantage
7-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
MIA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +3.9
MIA
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +10.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
FSU
MIA
FSU
ML
100% 7-0
86% 6-1
100% 7-0
86% 6-1
ATS
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
100% 7-0
TTL
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Florida State Fans Fly 'Fire Novell' Banner with Spelling Error …
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Freshman Phenom Jesse Legree Tops FBS Receiving Charts After Wee…
si 15 hours, 15 minutes ago
Top-25 Upset Alert: Miami, Ohio State Face Unranked Road Tests i…
cbssports 21 hours, 12 minutes ago
FSU Leadership Takes Measured Approach to Athletics and Coach Mi…
yahoo 2 days, 9 hours ago
Norvell and Swinney Under Fire as Florida State Hosts Clemson in…
yahoo 4 days, 15 hours ago