Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ BYU ND @ BYU

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

6-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

6-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
@
Matthias Dunn
KEY GAME

Matthias Dunn

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Jasper Scaife None-None
Matthias Dunn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
28%
📊
BYU
72%
▲ Edge: +49.30% (BYU)
NOTRE DAME 81% Book Odds: -420
BYU 23% Book Odds: +336
Book Implied: 80.80% / 22.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 47.0 69%
Under 47.0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BYU
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.5 points (BYU)
Notre DameND (-10.5) 0 BYUBYU (+10.5)
BYU Cougars (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

23.8%

BYU Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BYU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

ND By 1-6 points

10.7%

ND By 7-13 points

7.3%

BYU By 1-6 points

15.3%

BYU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 28.80
32.5
BYU
Book Implied: 18.20
Simulated Score
30
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 28.80
29
BYU
Book Implied: 18.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI BYU Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Notre Dame Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI BYU (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim BYU (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 ND @ BYU 24 - 28
Oct 8, 2022 BYU @ ND 20 - 28
Nov 23, 2013 BYU @ ND 13 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.0% more
BYU: 0.9 vs Notre Dame: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Notre Dame: 248.4 vs BYU: 193.0
First Downs (L5) +20.0% more
Notre Dame: 23.6 vs BYU: 18.9
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
Notre Dame: 496.9 vs BYU: 417.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 22.5 24
BYU Score 32.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 23.6 23.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 193.0 / 248.4 121.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 417.5 / 496.9 360.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -441 / +327 → -420 / +336
92%TICKETS8%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -10.5 / +10.5 → -10.5 / +10.5
38%TICKETS62%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 47 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 27.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
BYU
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 27.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
BYU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +2.3
BYU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
ND
BYU
ND
ML
86% 6-1
100% 8-0
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
ATS
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
TTL
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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