Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ Coastal APP @ CCU

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

4-2  |  Road

35
FINAL
Fri, Oct 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC)
View Odds Details →

COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

2-5  |  Home

32
Key Game
Jaxson Dunn
KEY GAME

Jaxson Dunn

#40 | Punter
@
Roland Podesta
KEY GAME

Roland Podesta

#42 | Punter
Player
Jaxson Dunn None-None
Roland Podesta None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
44%
📊
COASTAL
56%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (CCU)
APP STATE 53% Book Odds: -114
COASTAL 50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 53.30% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 60%
Under 48.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Coastal Carolina)
App StateAPP (-1.5) 0 CoastalCCU (+1.5)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

42.6%

Coastal Cover

57.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CCU -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCU)

APP By 1-6 points

15.5%

APP By 7-13 points

13.3%

CCU By 1-6 points

16.9%

CCU By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
APP STATE
Book Implied: 25
27.8
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
27
APP STATE
Book Implied: 25
23
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Coastal Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim App State Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Coastal (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
B
Sim App State (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2026 APP @ CCU 35 - 32
Oct 18, 2025 CCU @ APP 45 - 37
Nov 7, 2024 APP @ CCU 24 - 38
Oct 10, 2023 CCU @ APP 27 - 24
Nov 3, 2022 APP @ CCU 28 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.5% more
Coastal Carolina: 162.8 vs App State: 109.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 25.2 35
CCU Score 27.8 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 17.5 21.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 162.8 / 109.7 139.0 / 253.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.55 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 342.4 / 335.1 437.0 / 516.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +102 → -114 / +102
63%TICKETS37%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
43%TICKETS57%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 48.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
CCU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
CCU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.6
CCU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCU
APP
CCU
APP
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
ATS
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
TTL
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5
67% 4-2-1
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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