Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Sam Houston WKU @ SHSU

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

3-4  |  Road

16
FINAL
Wed, Oct 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

1-5  |  Home

3
Key Game
Karl Campbell
KEY GAME

Karl Campbell

#99 | Place kicker
@
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
Player
Karl Campbell None-None
Cal Joseph None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
67%
📊
SAM HOUSTON
33%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (WKU)
WESTERN KY 53% Book Odds: -112
SAM HOUSTON 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 53.5 46%
Under 53.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (-1.5) 0 Sam HoustonSHSU (+1.5)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

70.4%

Sam Houston Cover

29.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WKU -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

16.3%

WKU By 7-13 points

19.4%

SHSU By 1-6 points

12.5%

SHSU By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 27.50
22
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
25
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 27.50
28
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Western KY Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Sam Houston Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Western KY (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
B
Sim Sam Houston (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.5
C
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 14, 2026 WKU @ SHSU 16 - 3
Aug 23, 2025 SHSU @ WKU 24 - 41
Oct 16, 2024 WKU @ SHSU 31 - 14
Nov 18, 2023 SHSU @ WKU 23 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Western Kentucky: 148.5 vs Sam Houston: 113.2
Total Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Western Kentucky: 405.7 vs Sam Houston: 338.7
First Downs (L5) +15.9% more
Western Kentucky: 19.4 vs Sam Houston: 16.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.5 vs Sam Houston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 29.5 16
SHSU Score 22.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 19.4 12.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 113.2 / 148.5 65.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.15 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 338.7 / 405.7 177.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105 → -112 / -108 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 53.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -9.9 ATS +/-: -4.1
SHSU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.9 ATS +/-: -4.1
SHSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.3
SHSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
WKU
SHSU
WKU
ML
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
ATS
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
TTL
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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