Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ Jax State FIU @ JXST

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

3-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Tue, Oct 13 • 8:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

5-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Felix Visser None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
41%
📊
JAX STATE
59%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (JXST)
FIU 46% Book Odds: +120
JAX STATE 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.6
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 (Over)
Over 44.5 59%
Under 44.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Jacksonville State)
FIUFIU (+3) 0 Jax StateJXST (-3)
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

38.8%

Jax State Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JXST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

FIU By 1-6 points

14.7%

FIU By 7-13 points

12.1%

JXST By 1-6 points

17.0%

JXST By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 20.80
25.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
21
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 20.80
36
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jax State Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Jax State Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jax State (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Jax State (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.6
B
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 13, 2026 FIU @ JXST 24 - 27
Nov 22, 2025 JXST @ FIU 21 - 27
Nov 16, 2024 FIU @ JXST 31 - 34
Oct 25, 2023 JXST @ FIU 41 - 16
Oct 23, 2020 JXST @ FIU 19 - 10
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +27.5% more
Jacksonville State: 23.5 vs Florida International: 18.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.7% more
Jacksonville State: 155.4 vs Florida International: 127.7
Total Yards (L5) +20.6% more
Jacksonville State: 414.8 vs Florida International: 343.9
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Florida International: 0.6 vs Jacksonville State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 21.8 24
JXST Score 25.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 18.4 19.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 155.4 / 127.7 173.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 414.8 / 343.9 387.0 / 404.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148 → +120 / -142 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3 / -3
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 44.5 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
JXST Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
JXST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -14.5
JXST
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
FIU
JXST
FIU
ML
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
88% 7-1
86% 6-1
ATS
67% 4-2-1
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4-1
50% 3-3-1
TTL
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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