Home / NHL Projections NHL / Jets @ Penguins WPG @ PIT

WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

2-0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Oct 5 • 7:30 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

2-1-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Clay Stevenson
GOALTENDER

Clay Stevenson

#33 | Goaltender
@
Sergei Murashov
GOALTENDER

Sergei Murashov

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Clay Stevenson None-None 2.00 0.938 --
Sergei Murashov None-None 3.14 0.912 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.14
0.938 Ldr Save % 0.912
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
52%
📊
PENGUINS
48%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (WPG)
JETS 39% Book Odds: +158
PENGUINS 64% Book Odds: -176
Book Implied: 38.80% / 63.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 42%
Under 6.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Winnipeg)
JetsWPG (+1.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (-1.5)
Winnipeg Jets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

78.8%

Penguins Cover

21.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WPG -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)

WPG By 1 goal

18.9%

WPG By 2-3 goals

34.9%

PIT By 1 goal

8.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
WINNIPEG
Book Implied: 2.50
2.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
WINNIPEG
Book Implied: 2.50
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jets Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jets (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
A
Sim Jets (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 WPG @ PIT 3 - 2
Mar 21, 2026 WPG @ PIT 4 - 5
Nov 1, 2025 PIT @ WPG 2 - 5
Nov 22, 2024 WPG @ PIT 4 - 1
Oct 20, 2024 PIT @ WPG 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +23.6% more
Winnipeg: 18.3 vs Pittsburgh: 14.0
Faceoff % (L5) +5.2%
Winnipeg: 45.2% vs Pittsburgh: 40.0%
Takeaways (L5) +30.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.4 vs Winnipeg: 3.4
Hits (L5) +23.2% more
Pittsburgh: 21.4 vs Winnipeg: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WPG Score 3.8 3
PIT Score 2.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.0 / 18.3 10.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 40.0 / 45.2 54.7 / 45.3
Hits 21.4 / 17.4 11.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 5000.0 / 4713.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 35.3 / 31.0 32.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 4.4 / 3.4 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +158 / -176 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
35%TICKETS65%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
90%TICKETS10%
95%MONEY5%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WPG
PIT
WPG
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
si 1 hour, 38 minutes ago
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
headtopics 14 hours, 6 minutes ago
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
local10 19 hours, 46 minutes ago
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
yahoo 20 hours, 3 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago