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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

84-78  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Sep 29 • 5:00 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

81-81  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Hagen Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Hagen Smith

#32 | SP
@
AJ Blubaugh
STARTING PITCHER

AJ Blubaugh

#69 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hagen Smith 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
AJ Blubaugh 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
0-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.00 WHIP 0.00
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
46%
📊
ASTROS
54%
WHITE SOX 50% Book Odds: +102
ASTROS 55% Book Odds: -123
Book Implied: 49.50% / 55.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 59%
Under 8.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

63.7%

Astros Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.5%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 CHW @ HOU 7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 CHW @ HOU 6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026 CHW @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026 CHW @ HOU 0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 CHW @ HOU 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Houston HOU
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.826 ▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +113.5% more
Houston: 5.2 vs Chicago: 2.5
Total Bases (L5) +29.7% more
Houston: 21.6 vs Chicago: 16.6
Home Runs (L5) +29.6% more
Houston: 2.6 vs Chicago: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +28.4% more
Houston: 10.1 vs Chicago: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.8 6
HOU Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.2 / 8.9 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.6 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 7.9 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 21.6 / 16.6 9.0 / 14.0
Walks 5.2 / 2.5 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +122 / -135 → +102 / -123 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
46%TICKETS54%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
78%TICKETS22%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHW
HOU
CHW
ML
50% 81-82
49% 81-86
47% 77-87
56% 94-73
ATS
56% 91-72
59% 99-68
55% 90-74
56% 93-74
TTL
45% 70-84-9
58% 96-69-2
45% 69-86-9
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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