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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

2-1-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Rogers Arena
View Odds Details →

VANCOUVER

CANUCKSVAN

2-2-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
@
Kevin Lankinen
GOALTENDER

Kevin Lankinen

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Adin Hill None-None 2.00 0.900 --
Kevin Lankinen None-None 3.13 0.893 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.13
0.900 Ldr Save % 0.893
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
68%
đź“Š
CANUCKS
32%
â–˛ Edge: +2.20% (VAN)
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 74% Book Odds: -290
CANUCKS 30% Book Odds: +235
Book Implied: 74.40% / 29.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
â–Ľ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 42%
Under 6.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
VEGAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
â–˛ Edge: +0.1 points (Vegas)
Golden KnightsVGK (-1.5) 0 CanucksVAN (+1.5)
Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

78.8%

Canucks Cover

21.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

VGK By 1 goal

18.9%

VGK By 2-3 goals

34.9%

VAN By 1 goal

8.6%

VAN By 2-3 goals

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
2.2
VANCOUVER
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
3
VANCOUVER
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI Golden Knights Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Canucks Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Canucks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 VGK @ VAN 3 - 2
Apr 7, 2026 VGK @ VAN 2 - 1
Mar 30, 2026 VAN @ VGK 2 - 4
Feb 4, 2026 VAN @ VGK 2 - 5
Apr 16, 2025 VGK @ VAN 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +31.4% more
Vegas: 34.7 vs Vancouver: 23.8
Hits (L5) +11.9% more
Vegas: 28.1 vs Vancouver: 24.7
Faceoff % (L5) +10.2%
Vegas: 57.0% vs Vancouver: 46.8%
Power Play % (L5) +3.7%
Vegas: 33.3% vs Vancouver: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 3.8 3
VAN Score 2.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 19.0 / 10.0 20.0 / 7.0
Faceoff % 46.8 / 57.0 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 24.7 / 28.1 25.0 / 19.0
Power Play % 29.6 / 33.3 33.3 / 20.0
Shots on Goal 23.8 / 34.7 20.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 3.7 / 3.6 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -230 / +190 → -290 / +235 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
69%TICKETS31%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
87%TICKETS13%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
VGK
VAN
VGK
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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