Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Yankees BOS @ NYY

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-75  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

93-68  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Sonny Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Sonny Gray

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Max Fried
STARTING PITCHER

Max Fried

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sonny Gray 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
Max Fried 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
0-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.00 WHIP 0.00
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
44%
📊
YANKEES
56%
RED SOX 47% Book Odds: +113
YANKEES 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 74%
Under 6.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Red SoxBOS (+1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (-1.5)
New York Yankees (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

30.9%

Yankees Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BOS By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

7.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.50
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.50
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.409
OPS
▲ 1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +800.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +52.0% more
New York: 1.0 vs Boston: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +34.4%
New York: 59.4% vs Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season) +28.8%
New York: 44.7% vs Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.5 2
NYY Score 5.5 9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142 → +113 / -136 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
19%TICKETS81%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
89%TICKETS11%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
53% 86-76
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 81-73-7
46% 72-83-5
53% 82-72-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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