ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
1-0-0 | Road
4
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
1-1-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Carter Hart
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 3.00 | 0.900 | -- |
| Carter Hart | None-None | 4.16 | 0.800 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
4.16
0.900 Ldr
Save %
0.800
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
38%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
62%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (ANA)
DUCKS
36%
Book Odds: +180
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
69%
Book Odds: -218
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 6.5
34%
Under 6.5
66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ANAHEIM
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around ANA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ANA)
ANA By 1 goal
9.2%
ANA By 2-3 goals
6.1%
VGK By 1 goal
19.1%
VGK By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 2.50
Vegas
3.5
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Anaheim
3
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 2.50
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Ducks
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Ducks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
A
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 2, 2026
ANA @ VGK
4 - 3
May 14, 2026
VGK @ ANA
5 - 1
May 10, 2026
VGK @ ANA
3 - 4
May 8, 2026
VGK @ ANA
6 - 2
May 6, 2026
ANA @ VGK
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+32.6%
Vegas: 33.3%
vs
Anaheim: 0.7%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+32.0% more
Vegas: 37.0
vs
Anaheim: 28.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.5%
Vegas: 56.9%
vs
Anaheim: 47.4%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+46.6% more
Anaheim: 15.0
vs
Vegas: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ANA Score
2.0
4
VGK Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
8.0 / 15.0
14.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
56.9 / 47.4
57.1 / 42.9
Hits
33.1 / 35.5
18.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
33.3 / 0.7
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
37.0 / 28.0
30.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155
→
+180 / -218
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
ANA
VGK
ANA
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
Contextual Game News
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