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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

0-1-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Oct 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Nationwide Arena
View Odds Details →

COLUMBUS

BLUE JACKETSCBJ

1-0-0  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Jet Greaves
GOALTENDER

Jet Greaves

#73 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 5.07 0.773 --
Jet Greaves None-None 3.00 0.885 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.07 GAA Ldr 3.00
0.773 Save % Ldr 0.885
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
45%
đź“Š
BLUE JACKETS
55%
â–˛ Edge: +3.50% (CBJ)
SABRES 53% Book Odds: -112
BLUE JACKETS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
â–Ľ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 6.5 34%
Under 6.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
COLUMBUS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
â–˛ Edge: +3.0 points (Columbus)
SabresBUF (-1.5) 0 Blue JacketsCBJ (+1.5)
Columbus Blue Jackets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

22.7%

Blue Jackets Cover

77.3%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CBJ -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBJ)

BUF By 1 goal

9.2%

BUF By 2-3 goals

6.1%

CBJ By 1 goal

19.1%

CBJ By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4
3.5
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
1
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4
3
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jackets Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jackets Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI Blue Jackets (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim Blue Jackets (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
A
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 BUF @ CBJ 3 - 6
Apr 9, 2026 CBJ @ BUF 0 - 5
Jan 3, 2026 BUF @ CBJ 1 - 5
Oct 28, 2025 CBJ @ BUF 4 - 3
Sep 23, 2025 CBJ @ BUF 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +37.7% more
Columbus: 5.2 vs Buffalo: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5) +7.2%
Columbus: 55.4% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Hits (L5) +41.0% more
Buffalo: 22.5 vs Columbus: 13.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.2% more
Buffalo: 27.2 vs Columbus: 23.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.0 3
CBJ Score 3.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.4 / 12.2 15.0 / 8.0
Faceoff % 55.4 / 48.1 55.4 / 44.6
Hits 13.3 / 22.5 25.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 14.2 / 26.3 66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 23.9 / 27.2 23.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 5.2 / 3.8 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -110 → -112 / -108
56%TICKETS44%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6.5 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
83%MONEY17%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBJ
BUF
CBJ
BUF
ML
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
TTL
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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