Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Cardinals DET @ ARI

DETROIT

LIONSDET

3-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 4:25 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

1-4  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Chad Ryland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
74%
📊
CARDINALS
26%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (DET)
LIONS 73% Book Odds: -265
CARDINALS 32% Book Odds: +215
Book Implied: 72.60% / 31.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.0 (Under)
Over 55.5 36%
Under 55.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
LionsDET (-5.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+5.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+5.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

34.7%

Cardinals Cover

65.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARI +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

DET By 1-6 points

16.8%

DET By 7-13 points

18.8%

ARI By 1-6 points

13.8%

ARI By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
28
DETROIT
Book Implied: 30.50
22.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
20
DETROIT
Book Implied: 30.50
29
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Lions Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Cardinals Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
D
Sim Cardinals (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.5
B
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 DET @ ARI 45 - 21
Sep 22, 2024 DET @ ARI 20 - 13
Dec 19, 2021 ARI @ DET 12 - 30
Sep 27, 2020 DET @ ARI 26 - 23
Sep 8, 2019 DET @ ARI 27 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +32.2% more
Detroit: 302.6 vs Arizona: 205.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.8% more
Detroit: 6.1 vs Arizona: 4.6
Total Yards (L5) +22.7% more
Detroit: 400.3 vs Arizona: 309.2
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Detroit: 23.8 vs Arizona: 20.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 28.0 45
ARI Score 22.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 23.8 20.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 205.2 / 302.6 271.0 / 249.0
Rushing Yards 104.0 / 97.7 56.0 / 163.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 309.2 / 400.3 327.0 / 412.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 6.1 4.6 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -395 / +310 → -265 / +215 ↑
94%TICKETS6%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -8.5 / +8.5 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 55.5 ↑
71%TICKETS29%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
ARI
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
1-4-1 (20.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
ARI Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +5.3
ARI
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
DET
ARI
DET
ML
71% 5-2
83% 5-1
14% 1-6
50% 3-3
ATS
86% 6-1
60% 3-2-1
29% 2-5
60% 3-2-1
TTL
57% 4-3
33% 2-4
43% 3-4
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals' Michael Wilson Appears in Non-Contact Jersey at Pract…
si 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
Nahshon Wright Admits Frustration with Jets Role, Open to Trade …
bleacherreport 3 hours, 10 minutes ago
Josh Jacobs Unfazed by Boos in Packers Return: 'I Don't Care'
yahoo 15 hours, 21 minutes ago
Drew Mestemaker Solidifies No. 1 Spot in 2027 NFL Draft QB Ranki…
yahoo 21 hours, 7 minutes ago
Week 8 Fantasy RB Decisions: Bucky Irving Shines, Omarion Hampto…
si 21 hours, 10 minutes ago