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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

0-1-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Sep 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

1-1-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ilya Sorokin None-None 2.07 0.923 --
Anthony Stolarz None-None 1.03 0.963 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.07 GAA Ldr 1.03
0.923 Save % Ldr 0.963
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
31%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
69%
▲ Edge: +10.20% (TOR)
ISLANDERS 46% Book Odds: +120
MAPLE LEAFS 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 48%
Under 5.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
IslandersNYI (+1.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

77.3%

Maple Leafs Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

NYI By 1 goal

9.2%

NYI By 2-3 goals

6.1%

TOR By 1 goal

19.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maple Leafs Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Maple Leafs Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Islanders (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 NYI @ TOR 1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026 NYI @ TOR 3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 4
Jan 2, 2025 TOR @ NYI 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +39.6% more
Toronto: 24.6 vs New York: 17.6
Shots on Goal (L5) +25.0% more
Toronto: 28.0 vs New York: 22.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +14.5% more
Toronto: 14.1 vs New York: 12.3
Takeaways (L5) +22.2% more
New York: 3.8 vs Toronto: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 2.0 1
TOR Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.1 / 12.3 21.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 39.7 / 57.9 60.0 / 40.0
Hits 24.6 / 17.6 19.0 / 24.0
Power Play % 0.0 / 3.6 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 28.0 / 22.4 26.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 3.0 / 3.8 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110 → +120 / -142 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
64%TICKETS36%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 5.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
60%MONEY40%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYI
TOR
NYI
ML
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 4-0
100% 2-0-1
75% 3-1
100% 2-0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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