Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ N Illinois AFA @ NIU

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

4-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:30 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-5  |  Home

7
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
55%
📊
N ILLINOIS
45%
▲ Edge: +15.40% (NIU)
AIR FORCE 75% Book Odds: -298
N ILLINOIS 29% Book Odds: +240
Book Implied: 74.90% / 29.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 57%
Under 48.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Northern Illinois)
Air ForceAFA (-7) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+7)
Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

44.3%

N Illinois Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NIU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

AFA By 1-6 points

16.9%

AFA By 7-13 points

16.8%

NIU By 1-6 points

15.7%

NIU By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 27.80
24.8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 20.80
Simulated Score
32
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 27.80
18
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 20.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Air Force Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Air Force Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI N Illinois (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
B
Sim Air Force (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 AFA @ NIU 28 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +54.9% more
Air Force: 266.1 vs Northern Illinois: 120.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Air Force: 0.5 vs Northern Illinois: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Northern Illinois: 1.3 vs Air Force: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 26.8 28
NIU Score 24.8 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 20.9 13.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 120.1 / 266.1 113.0 / 439.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.77
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 339.0 / 360.1 253.0 / 433.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -475 / +347 → -298 / +240 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -11.5 / +11.5 → -7 / +7 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 48.5 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
NIU
0-7-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
NIU
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +0.1
NIU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
AFA
NIU
AFA
ML
86% 6-1
33% 2-4
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
ATS
57% 4-3
50% 3-3
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
TTL
57% 4-3
33% 2-4
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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