Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ Navy TLSA @ NAVY

TULSA

TULSATLSA

3-3  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

2-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Max Tulen
KEY GAME

Max Tulen

#29 | Punter
@
Nolan Bartley
KEY GAME

Nolan Bartley

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Max Tulen None-None
Nolan Bartley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
24%
📊
NAVY
76%
▲ Edge: +15.30% (NAVY)
TULSA 44% Book Odds: +130
NAVY 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.50% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.6
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 (Over)
Over 47.5 64%
Under 47.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NAVY
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Navy)
TulsaTLSA (+3) 0 NavyNAVY (-3)
Navy Midshipmen (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

19.6%

Navy Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NAVY -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

TLSA By 1-6 points

9.3%

TLSA By 7-13 points

5.9%

NAVY By 1-6 points

14.2%

NAVY By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
TULSA
Book Implied: 22.20
32.8
NAVY
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
18
TULSA
Book Implied: 22.20
34
NAVY
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Navy Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Navy Win
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Navy (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Sim Navy (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.6
B
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 TLSA @ NAVY 26 - 34
Sep 13, 2025 NAVY @ TLSA 42 - 23
Oct 8, 2022 TLSA @ NAVY 21 - 53
Oct 29, 2021 NAVY @ TLSA 20 - 17
Dec 5, 2020 TLSA @ NAVY 19 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.0% more
Navy: 1.3 vs Tulsa: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.7% more
Navy: 233.1 vs Tulsa: 163.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 20.8 26
NAVY Score 32.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 19.1 24.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 233.1 / 163.4 386.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.73 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 346.2 / 352.0 481.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.9 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -131 → +130 / -155 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 47.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +1.9
NAVY
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +1.9
NAVY
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.4
NAVY
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
TLSA
NAVY
TLSA
ML
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
100% 7-0
88% 7-1
ATS
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
38% 3-5
TTL
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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