Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas @ Oklahoma TEX @ OU

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

4-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Cotton Bowl
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

3-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Mac Chiumento
KEY GAME

Mac Chiumento

#43 | Punter
@
Tate Sandell
KEY GAME

Tate Sandell

#29 | Place kicker
Player
Mac Chiumento None-None
Tate Sandell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS
41%
📊
OKLAHOMA
59%
▲ Edge: +31.90% (OU)
TEXAS 77% Book Odds: -340
OKLAHOMA 27% Book Odds: +270
Book Implied: 77.30% / 27%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 40.5 65%
Under 40.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 points (Oklahoma)
TexasTEX (-7.5) 0 OklahomaOU (+7.5)
Oklahoma Sooners (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Cover

38.8%

Oklahoma Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

TEX By 1-6 points

14.7%

TEX By 7-13 points

12.1%

OU By 1-6 points

17.0%

OU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
22
TEXAS
Book Implied: 24
26
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 16.50
Simulated Score
27
TEXAS
Book Implied: 24
21
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 16.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Sim Oklahoma (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Sim o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 TEX @ OU 24 - 27
Oct 11, 2025 OU @ TEX 6 - 23
Oct 12, 2024 TEX @ OU 34 - 3
Oct 7, 2023 OU @ TEX 34 - 30
Oct 8, 2022 TEX @ OU 49 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +126.5% more
Oklahoma: 2.7 vs Texas: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.8% more
Texas: 133.2 vs Oklahoma: 84.2
First Downs (L5) +24.0% more
Texas: 20.9 vs Oklahoma: 15.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Texas: 358.2 vs Oklahoma: 314.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 22.0 24
OU Score 26.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 20.9 14.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 84.2 / 133.2 83.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 314.3 / 358.2 238.0 / 382.0
Turnovers 2.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -218 / +180 → -340 / +270 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6 / +6 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 40.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
OU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
OU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -5.9
OU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
TEX
OU
TEX
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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