Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech UL @ LT

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

4-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

3-2  |  Home

32
Key Game
Mason Golding
KEY GAME

Mason Golding

#49 | Punter
@
Lexington Matthews
KEY GAME

Lexington Matthews

#29 | Punter
Player
Mason Golding None-None
Lexington Matthews None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
36%
📊
LOUISIANA TECH
64%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (LT)
LOUISIANA 44% Book Odds: +130
LOUISIANA TECH 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.50% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 (Over)
Over 48.5 67%
Under 48.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
LouisianaUL (+3) 0 Louisiana TechLT (-3)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

33.4%

Louisiana Tech Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

UL By 1-6 points

13.5%

UL By 7-13 points

10.4%

LT By 1-6 points

16.7%

LT By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 22.80
31.2
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 25.80
Simulated Score
28
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 22.80
25
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 25.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisiana Tech Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisiana Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Louisiana Tech (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim Louisiana (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.4
A
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 UL @ LT 31 - 32
Oct 3, 2015 UL @ LT 14 - 43
Sep 6, 2014 LT @ UL 48 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +8.6% more
Louisiana Tech: 404.0 vs Louisiana: 372.1
First Downs (L5) +11.0% more
Louisiana: 22.3 vs Louisiana Tech: 19.9
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Louisiana: 0.6 vs Louisiana Tech: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 25.2 31
LT Score 31.2 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 22.3 28.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 187.6 / 197.0 147.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 404.0 / 372.1 485.0 / 399.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.3 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148 → +130 / -155 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3 / -3
38%TICKETS62%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 48.5 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 8.9 ATS +/-: +6.0
LT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
5-2-1 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.9 ATS +/-: +6.0
LT Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -0.3
LT
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
UL
LT
UL
ML
100% 7-0
88% 7-1
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
ATS
43% 3-4
57% 4-3-1
57% 4-3
71% 5-2-1
TTL
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
FSU Leadership Takes Measured Approach to Athletics and Coach Mi…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Beavers' Coaches Laud Fresno State's Winning Culture Before Hall…
si 4 hours, 7 minutes ago
Paul Finebaum's ESPN Contract Status: Analyst Weighs Future as D…
awfulannouncing 9 hours, 52 minutes ago
Chris Hewitt Jr. Credits Coach Vinnie, 'Next Guy Up' Mindset for…
si 10 hours, 22 minutes ago
Oregon Turns to External Advisors to Diagnose Offensive Woes
yahoo 15 hours, 55 minutes ago