Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Old Dominion @ App State ODU @ APP

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

2-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 1:00 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

3-2  |  Home

3
Key Game
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
@
Jaxson Dunn
KEY GAME

Jaxson Dunn

#40 | Punter
Player
Ian Brandt None-None
Jaxson Dunn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLD DOMINION
63%
📊
APP STATE
37%
▲ Edge: +37.20% (ODU)
OLD DOMINION 26% Book Odds: +285
APP STATE 78% Book Odds: -360
Book Implied: 26% / 78.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 45.5 59%
Under 45.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Old Dominion)
Old DominionODU (+8.5) 0 App StateAPP (-8.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Old Dominion Cover

65.3%

App State Cover

34.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ODU -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

ODU By 1-6 points

16.8%

ODU By 7-13 points

18.8%

APP By 1-6 points

13.8%

APP By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 18.50
22
APP STATE
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
24
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 18.50
31
APP STATE
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim App State Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
A
Sim Old Dominion (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.5
B
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 ODU @ APP 10 - 3
Oct 25, 2025 APP @ ODU 21 - 24
Nov 2, 2024 ODU @ APP 20 - 28
Oct 21, 2023 APP @ ODU 21 - 28
Nov 19, 2022 ODU @ APP 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.9% more
Old Dominion: 1.7 vs App State: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +67.6% more
App State: 423.6 vs Old Dominion: 252.8
First Downs (L5) +53.5% more
App State: 21.7 vs Old Dominion: 14.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.4% more
App State: 118.5 vs Old Dominion: 106.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 27.5 10
APP Score 22.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 14.1 9.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 118.5 / 106.3 92.0 / 207.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.08 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 423.6 / 252.8 158.0 / 304.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +210 / -258 → +285 / -360 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 45.5 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -10.1
APP Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -10.1
APP Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -5.1
APP
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
ODU
APP
ODU
ML
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
ATS
14% 1-6
25% 2-6
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
TTL
29% 2-5
25% 2-6
71% 5-2
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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