Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Michigan @ Ohio CMU @ OHIO

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

3-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

4-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Declan Duley None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
33%
📊
OHIO
67%
▲ Edge: +9.50% (OHIO)
C MICHIGAN 47% Book Odds: +114
OHIO 57% Book Odds: -135
Book Implied: 46.70% / 57.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 45.5 64%
Under 45.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
OHIO
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Ohio)
C MichiganCMU (+2.5) 0 OhioOHIO (-2.5)
Ohio Bobcats (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

29.4%

Ohio Cover

70.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

CMU By 1-6 points

12.5%

CMU By 7-13 points

9.1%

OHIO By 1-6 points

16.3%

OHIO By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 21.50
29.8
OHIO
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 21.50
32
OHIO
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Ohio Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.6
B
Sim Ohio (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 CMU @ OHIO 14 - 31
Oct 12, 2024 OHIO @ CMU 27 - 25
Nov 15, 2023 CMU @ OHIO 20 - 34
Oct 9, 2021 CMU @ OHIO 30 - 27
Nov 4, 2020 OHIO @ CMU 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
Ohio: 19.1 vs Central Michigan: 16.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Ohio: 0.5 vs Central Michigan: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.6% more
Ohio: 356.2 vs Central Michigan: 328.0
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
Central Michigan: 1.7 vs Ohio: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 22.2 14
OHIO Score 29.8 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 16.1 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 209.9 / 208.9 245.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 356.2 / 328.0 403.0 / 275.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -178 → +114 / -135 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47 → 45.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -2.6
OHIO Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -2.6
OHIO
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -2.0
OHIO
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
CMU
OHIO
CMU
ML
86% 6-1
88% 7-1
100% 8-0
62% 5-3
ATS
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
TTL
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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