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SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

1-5  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

2-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
@
Ryan Kingston
KEY GAME

Ryan Kingston

#30 | Punter
Player
Hamish Adams None-None
Ryan Kingston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SACRAMENTO ST
45%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
55%
▲ Edge: +17.40% (SAC)
SACRAMENTO ST 28% Book Odds: +260
BOWLING GREEN 77% Book Odds: -325
Book Implied: 27.80% / 76.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 (Over)
Over 43.5 68%
Under 43.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Sacramento State)
Sacramento StSAC (+9.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (-9.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sacramento St Cover

55.7%

Bowling Green Cover

44.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SAC +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-6 points

15.7%

SAC By 7-13 points

13.8%

BGSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

BGSU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.8
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 17
26.8
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
20
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 17
26
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Bowling Green Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
B
Sim Sacramento St (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.6
A
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 SAC @ BGSU 10 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.9% more
Sacramento State: 2.4 vs Bowling Green: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +21.2% more
Sacramento State: 20.8 vs Bowling Green: 16.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.1% more
Sacramento State: 117.2 vs Bowling Green: 92.5
Total Yards (L5) +18.4% more
Sacramento State: 341.8 vs Bowling Green: 278.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 24.8 10
BGSU Score 26.8 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 20.8 22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 92.5 / 117.2 218.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 278.9 / 341.8 355.0 / 215.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +225 / -278 → +260 / -325 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↑
42%TICKETS58%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 43.5 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -17.6 ATS +/-: -10.1
BGSU Advantage
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -17.6 ATS +/-: -10.1
BGSU Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.0
BGSU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
SAC
BGSU
SAC
ML
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
ATS
62% 5-3
14% 1-6
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
TTL
100% 8-0
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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