NEVADA
NEVADANEV
2-3 | Road
30
UTEP
UTEPUTEP
1-5 | Home
13
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ewan Baulch
#95 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Brady Braun
#47 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ewan Baulch | None-None |
| Brady Braun | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
55%
UTEP
45%
▲ Edge: +19.90% (UTEP)
NEVADA
79%
Book Odds: -375
UTEP
25%
Book Odds: +295
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 48.5
57%
Under 48.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
UTEP
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (UTEP)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTEP +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)
NEV By 1-6 points
16.9%
NEV By 7-13 points
16.8%
UTEP By 1-6 points
15.7%
UTEP By 7-13 points
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
27
NEVADA
Book Implied: 29.20
UTEP
25
UTEP
Book Implied: 19.20
Simulated Score
Nevada
19
NEVADA
Book Implied: 29.20
UTEP
26
UTEP
Book Implied: 19.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nevada
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
UTEP
Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
UTEP (+10)
Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Sim
UTEP (+10)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o48.5
Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim
u48.5
Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 10, 2026
NEV @ UTEP
30 - 13
Sep 21, 2019
NEV @ UTEP
37 - 21
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+25.7% more
Nevada: 19.0
vs
UTEP: 14.1
Total Yards (L5)
+24.7% more
Nevada: 357.0
vs
UTEP: 268.7
Rushing Yards (L5)
+23.3% more
Nevada: 173.4
vs
UTEP: 132.9
Turnovers (L5)
+54.1% more
UTEP: 2.6
vs
Nevada: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
27.0
30
UTEP Score
25.0
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
14.1 / 19.0
9.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards
132.9 / 173.4
79.0 / 274.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.07 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards
268.7 / 357.0
211.0 / 376.0
Turnovers
2.6 / 1.7
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -364 / +280
→
-375 / +295
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9.5 / +9.5
→
-10 / +10
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 50
→
48.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +5.4
UTEP
1-5-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -23.7
ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +5.4
UTEP
1-5-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -23.7
ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -0.7
UTEP
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
NEV
UTEP
NEV
ML
100%
6-0
40%
2-3
67%
4-2
60%
3-2
ATS
0%
0-6
40%
2-3
0%
0-6
40%
2-3
TTL
83%
5-1
20%
1-4
67%
4-2
80%
4-1
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