Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Northwestern BALL @ NU

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

1-5  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:30 PM ET
Ryan Field
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

4-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
@
Nikola Dugandzic
KEY GAME

Nikola Dugandzic

#92 | Punter
Player
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
Nikola Dugandzic None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
5%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
95%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (BALL)
BALL STATE 2% Book Odds: +5000
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 53.5 65%
Under 53.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
+34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Ball State)
Ball StateBALL (+34.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (-34.5)
Ball State Cardinals (+34.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

98.4%

Northwestern Cover

1.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL +30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

BALL By 1-6 points

1.0%

BALL By 7-13 points

0.4%

NU By 1-6 points

2.9%

NU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
15
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 9.50
45
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 44
Simulated Score
18
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 9.50
28
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 44
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Northwestern Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Northwestern Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ball State (+34.5) Win
Proj Spread: +30.0
B
Sim Ball State (+34.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 BALL @ NU 14 - 45
Sep 26, 2015 BALL @ NU 19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +81.2% more
Northwestern: 217.1 vs Ball State: 119.8
Total Yards (L5) +37.2% more
Northwestern: 417.3 vs Ball State: 304.2
First Downs (L5) +32.8% more
Northwestern: 21.7 vs Ball State: 16.3
Turnovers (L5) +30.5% more
Ball State: 1.2 vs Northwestern: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 15.0 14
NU Score 45.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 16.3 26.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 217.1 / 119.8 164.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 417.3 / 304.2 436.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +5238 / -20000 → +5000 / --
3%TICKETS97%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +34.5 / -34.5 → +34.5 / -34.5
87%TICKETS13%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 53.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
NU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +10.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
NU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +10.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.5
NU
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
BALL
NU
BALL
ML
83% 5-1
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
88% 7-1
ATS
50% 3-3
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
TTL
100% 6-0
75% 6-2
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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