Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ Georgia Tech DUKE @ GT

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

4-1  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA TECH

GEORGIA TECHGT

2-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Alex Bacchetta
KEY GAME

Alex Bacchetta

#47 | Punter
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Alex Bacchetta None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
41%
📊
GEORGIA TECH
59%
▲ Edge: +22.40% (GT)
DUKE 67% Book Odds: -205
GEORGIA TECH 37% Book Odds: +170
Book Implied: 67.20% / 37%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.6
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 45.5 58%
Under 45.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Georgia Tech)
DukeDUKE (-4.5) 0 Georgia TechGT (+4.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

38.8%

Georgia Tech Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)

DUKE By 1-6 points

14.7%

DUKE By 7-13 points

12.1%

GT By 1-6 points

17.0%

GT By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
22.8
DUKE
Book Implied: 25
26.8
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
29
DUKE
Book Implied: 25
32
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia Tech Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia Tech Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Georgia Tech (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Sim Georgia Tech (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.6
B
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 DUKE @ GT 25 - 28
Oct 18, 2025 GT @ DUKE 27 - 18
Oct 5, 2024 DUKE @ GT 14 - 24
Oct 8, 2022 DUKE @ GT 20 - 23
Oct 9, 2021 GT @ DUKE 31 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +87.0% more
Georgia Tech: 1.4 vs Duke: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.1% more
Duke: 233.3 vs Georgia Tech: 142.0
Total Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Duke: 481.5 vs Georgia Tech: 395.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Duke: 0.4 vs Georgia Tech: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 22.8 25
GT Score 26.8 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 23.1 21.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 142.0 / 233.3 165.0 / 159.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.59
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 395.0 / 481.5 383.0 / 418.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -280 / +224 → -205 / +170 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 45.5 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +5.1
GT
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +5.1
GT
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -4.9
GT
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GT
DUKE
GT
DUKE
ML
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
ATS
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
TTL
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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