Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Houston @ Kansas St HOU @ KSU

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

5-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

3-2  |  Home

16
Key Game
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Liam Dougherty None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
57%
📊
KANSAS ST
43%
▲ Edge: +11.60% (HOU)
HOUSTON 46% Book Odds: +120
KANSAS ST 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 55.5 48%
Under 55.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Houston)
HoustonHOU (+2.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (-2.5)
Houston Cougars (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Houston Cover

58.5%

Kansas St Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

17.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

17.5%

KSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

KSU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 26.50
26.2
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
31
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 26.50
29
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Houston Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Houston Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Houston (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.4
D
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 HOU @ KSU 35 - 16
Nov 2, 2024 KSU @ HOU 19 - 24
Oct 28, 2023 HOU @ KSU 0 - 41
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +12.5% more
Houston: 26.4 vs Kansas State: 23.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Kansas State: 0.9 vs Houston: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 29.2 35
KSU Score 26.2 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 26.4 19.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 216.8 / 201.8 117.0 / 233.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 447.3 / 445.1 299.0 / 475.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -138 → +120 / -142 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +2.5 / -2.5
72%TICKETS28%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 55.5
32%TICKETS68%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +4.1
KSU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +4.1
KSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +1.3
KSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
HOU
KSU
HOU
ML
71% 5-2
100% 8-0
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
ATS
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
86% 6-1
50% 4-4
TTL
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Arizona's Brent Brennan Drops $2K on Tequila Shots and Buys 1,00…
foxnews 1 day, 4 hours ago
Miami Holds Firm at No. 1 as Top Contenders Stumble in Chaotic W…
si 3 days, 9 hours ago
Jon Coffman Praises Matt Painter for Scheduling Road Exhibition …
si 3 days, 9 hours ago
Wild Weekend Shakes Up College Football: Kentucky Survives Chaos…
yahoo 3 days, 16 hours ago
Big 12 Chaos Shakes Up Las Vegas CFP Projections: Miami, Georgia…
reviewjournal 3 days, 22 hours ago