Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maryland @ Ohio State MD @ OSU

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

2-4  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 4:15 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

5-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Bryce McFerson None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARYLAND
8%
📊
OHIO STATE
92%
MARYLAND --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.6
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 56.5 59%
Under 56.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
+31.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Maryland)
MarylandMD (+31.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (-31.5)
Maryland Terrapins (+31.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maryland Cover

96.3%

Ohio State Cover

3.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MD +25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)

MD By 1-6 points

2.2%

MD By 7-13 points

0.9%

OSU By 1-6 points

5.3%

OSU By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.8
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 12.50
42.8
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 44
Simulated Score
30
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 12.50
36
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 44
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio State Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim Ohio State Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maryland (+31.5) Win
Proj Spread: +25.0
A
Sim Maryland (+31.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.6
B
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 MD @ OSU 16 - 45
Oct 7, 2023 MD @ OSU 17 - 37
Nov 19, 2022 OSU @ MD 43 - 30
Oct 9, 2021 MD @ OSU 17 - 66
Nov 9, 2019 MD @ OSU 14 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.6% more
Ohio State: 154.6 vs Maryland: 114.1
Total Yards (L5) +30.8% more
Ohio State: 492.9 vs Maryland: 377.0
First Downs (L5) +25.3% more
Ohio State: 25.1 vs Maryland: 20.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Ohio State: 0.5 vs Maryland: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MD Score 17.8 16
OSU Score 42.8 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.1 / 20.0 24.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 154.6 / 114.1 207.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 492.9 / 377.0 449.0 / 146.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3000 / -9000 → -- / --
2%TICKETS98%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35 / -35 → +31.5 / -31.5 ↓
22%TICKETS78%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 56.5 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
OSU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 25.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
OSU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 25.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +6.9
OSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
MD
OSU
MD
ML
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
ATS
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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