Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana @ Nebraska IU @ NEB

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

6-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

5-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
@
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Billy Gowers None-None
Kyle Cunanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
85%
📊
NEBRASKA
15%
▲ Edge: +8.10% (IU)
INDIANA 77% Book Odds: -340
NEBRASKA 27% Book Odds: +270
Book Implied: 77.30% / 27%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 52%
Under 48.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.6
INDIANA
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (Indiana)
IndianaIU (-8.5) 0 NebraskaNEB (+8.5)
Indiana Hoosiers (-8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana Cover

90.8%

Nebraska Cover

9.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IU -18.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

IU By 1-6 points

9.6%

IU By 7-13 points

16.4%

NEB By 1-6 points

5.0%

NEB By 7-13 points

2.6%

AI Model Projected Score
33.8
INDIANA
Book Implied: 28.50
15.2
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
28
INDIANA
Book Implied: 28.50
35
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Nebraska Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.6
A
Sim Nebraska (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 IU @ NEB 20 - 17
Oct 19, 2024 NEB @ IU 7 - 56
Oct 1, 2022 IU @ NEB 21 - 35
Oct 26, 2019 IU @ NEB 38 - 31
Oct 15, 2016 NEB @ IU 27 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Indiana: 264.3 vs Nebraska: 212.0
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Indiana: 504.8 vs Nebraska: 438.1
Turnovers (L5) +42.0% more
Nebraska: 0.5 vs Indiana: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 33.8 20
NEB Score 15.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 23.7 25.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 212.0 / 264.3 128.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 438.1 / 504.8 391.0 / 328.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -325 / +260 → -340 / +270 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -8.5 / +8.5 → -8.5 / +8.5
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 48.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: -3.4
NEB
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: -3.4
NEB Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.1
NEB
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
IU
NEB
IU
ML
100% 7-0
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
ATS
14% 1-6
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
TTL
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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