Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia @ Alabama UGA @ ALA

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

6-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

5-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Drew Miller
KEY GAME

Drew Miller

#90 | Punter
@
Alex Asparuhov
KEY GAME

Alex Asparuhov

#32 | Punter
Player
Drew Miller None-None
Alex Asparuhov None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA
62%
📊
ALABAMA
39%
▲ Edge: +14.10% (UGA)
GEORGIA 47% Book Odds: +111
ALABAMA 56% Book Odds: -125
Book Implied: 47.40% / 55.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.6
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 (Over)
Over 51.5 69%
Under 51.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Georgia)
GeorgiaUGA (+2.5) 0 AlabamaALA (-2.5)
Georgia Bulldogs (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Cover

64.0%

Alabama Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UGA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

UGA By 1-6 points

16.9%

UGA By 7-13 points

18.5%

ALA By 1-6 points

14.2%

ALA By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
32.8
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 24.50
27.8
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
30
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 24.50
34
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Georgia Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Alabama Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Georgia (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Alabama (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.6
A
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 UGA @ ALA 20 - 17
Dec 6, 2025 UGA @ ALA 28 - 7
Sep 27, 2025 ALA @ UGA 24 - 21
Sep 28, 2024 UGA @ ALA 34 - 41
Dec 2, 2023 UGA @ ALA 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Georgia: 190.5 vs Alabama: 166.9
Turnovers (L5) +40.0% more
Alabama: 1.1 vs Georgia: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 32.8 20
ALA Score 27.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 21.5 17.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 166.9 / 190.5 161.0 / 206.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 462.9 / 437.7 346.0 / 455.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -108 → +111 / -125 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55 → 51.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 27.1 ATS +/-: +3.1
ALA
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 27.1 ATS +/-: +3.1
ALA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +7.2
ALA
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
UGA
ALA
UGA
ML
88% 7-1
83% 5-1
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
ATS
75% 6-2
50% 3-3
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
TTL
50% 4-4
67% 4-2
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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