Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington St @ Utah State WSU @ USU

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-5  |  Road

16
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

2-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
Max Dean
KEY GAME

Max Dean

#32 | Punter
@
Kian Afrookhteh
KEY GAME

Kian Afrookhteh

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Max Dean None-None
Kian Afrookhteh None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON ST
81%
📊
UTAH STATE
19%
▲ Edge: +41.30% (WSU)
WASHINGTON ST 39% Book Odds: +154
UTAH STATE 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 52%
Under 43.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Washington State)
Washington StWSU (+4) 0 Utah StateUSU (-4)
Washington State Cougars (+4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington St Cover

85.8%

Utah State Cover

14.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

WSU By 1-6 points

12.2%

WSU By 7-13 points

18.5%

USU By 1-6 points

7.2%

USU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 19.80
14.5
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
25
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 19.80
27
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington St Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Utah State Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Sim Washington St (+4) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 WSU @ USU 16 - 17
Dec 22, 2025 WSU @ USU 34 - 21
Nov 9, 2024 USU @ WSU 28 - 49
Sep 4, 2021 USU @ WSU 26 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
Washington State: 1.8 vs Utah State: 1.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Utah State: 140.9 vs Washington State: 118.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.1% more
Utah State: 336.3 vs Washington State: 299.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 29.5 16
USU Score 14.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 17.2 11.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 140.9 / 118.9 86.0 / 101.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.21 / 0.26
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 336.3 / 299.9 236.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +154 / -185 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +4 / -4 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 43.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -8.8 ATS +/-: -2.6
USU Advantage
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -8.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -8.8 ATS +/-: -2.6
USU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -8.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -2.6
USU
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -15.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
WSU
USU
WSU
ML
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
100% 8-0
ATS
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
TTL
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
14% 1-6
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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