Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Liberty SHSU @ LIB

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

1-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Oct 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

5-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
@
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
Player
Cal Joseph None-None
Sam Crossan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
27%
📊
LIBERTY
73%
▲ Edge: +7% (SHSU)
SAM HOUSTON 20% Book Odds: +410
LIBERTY 85% Book Odds: -549
Book Implied: 19.60% / 84.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
Over 52.5 50%
Under 52.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.5
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Sam Houston)
Sam HoustonSHSU (+13.5) 0 LibertyLIB (-13.5)
Sam Houston Bearkats (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

77.3%

Liberty Cover

22.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SHSU +10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-6 points

10.4%

SHSU By 7-13 points

6.9%

LIB By 1-6 points

15.0%

LIB By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 19.50
31.5
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
23
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 19.50
27
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Liberty Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Liberty Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sam Houston (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.5
C
Sim Sam Houston (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.5
D
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 SHSU @ LIB 3 - 35
Nov 29, 2024 LIB @ SHSU 18 - 20
Oct 5, 2023 SHSU @ LIB 16 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +105.3% more
Liberty: 240.7 vs Sam Houston: 117.3
First Downs (L5) +24.8% more
Liberty: 22.5 vs Sam Houston: 18.0
Total Yards (L5) +13.4% more
Liberty: 438.3 vs Sam Houston: 386.5
Turnovers (L5) +35.2% more
Sam Houston: 1.6 vs Liberty: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 21.0 3
LIB Score 31.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 18.0 22.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 240.7 / 117.3 297.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 438.3 / 386.5 411.0 / 243.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +440 / -599 → +410 / -549 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +13.5 / -13.5 → +13.5 / -13.5
41%TICKETS59%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 52.5
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
LIB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
SHSU
LIB
SHSU
ML
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
100% 5-0
ATS
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 3-3
100% 5-0
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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