Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ FIU NMSU @ FIU

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

2-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Oct 7 • 7:30 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

3-2  |  Home

22
Key Game
Brody Richter
KEY GAME

Brody Richter

#91 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
Player
Brody Richter None-None
Felix Visser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
34%
📊
FIU
66%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (NMSU)
NEW MEXICO ST 33% Book Odds: +205
FIU 71% Book Odds: -250
Book Implied: 32.80% / 71.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 46.5 61%
Under 46.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
New Mexico StNMSU (+7) 0 FIUFIU (-7)
Line aligns with book spread (+7)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

69.1%

FIU Cover

30.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NMSU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

NMSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

FIU By 1-6 points

16.5%

FIU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 19.80
28.8
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
26
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 19.80
31
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI FIU Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim FIU Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St (-7) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim New Mexico St (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.6
B
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 NMSU @ FIU 3 - 22
Oct 29, 2024 NMSU @ FIU 13 - 34
Oct 4, 2023 FIU @ NMSU 17 - 34
Oct 1, 2022 FIU @ NMSU 21 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Florida International: 0.5 vs New Mexico State: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.7% more
New Mexico State: 160.2 vs Florida International: 141.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 21.8 3
FIU Score 28.8 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 20.6 15.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 141.6 / 160.2 100.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 405.8 / 388.5 220.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +205 / -250 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +7 / -7 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 46.5 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +2.4
FIU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +2.4
FIU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.5
FIU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
NMSU
FIU
NMSU
ML
86% 6-1
83% 5-1
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
33% 2-4-1
67% 4-2
50% 3-3-1
57% 4-3
TTL
71% 5-2
50% 3-3
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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