ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
86-76 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Soroka
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | 9-5 | 3.31 | 1.09 | 111.1 | 110 |
| Randy Vasquez | 10-6 | 4.01 | 1.30 | 134.2 | 85 |
9-5
W-L
10-6
3.31 Ldr
ERA
4.01
1.09 Ldr
WHIP
1.30
111.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 134.2
110 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
85
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
PADRES
60%
▲ Edge: +16.50% (SD)
DIAMONDBACKS
61%
Book Odds: -158
PADRES
44%
Book Odds: +130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.2%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
San Diego: 0.3
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.5
4
SD Score
5.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 10.6
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.3
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 18.7
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.8 / 5.1
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -125
→
-158 / +130
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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